miércoles, noviembre 05, 2008

Nouriel y el hard landing de China

Nouriel Roubini no se caracteriza por su optimismo. Pero más que pesimista deberíamos decir que es un agudo analista ya que sus oscuras predicciones vienen ocurriendo a contramano de quienes ofrecían pronósticos menos apocalípticos.

Ayer en su blog publicó un post de título atrapante: The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth – U.S. and China – are Now Stalling. Imposible dejar de leer. Para quienes no estén registrados al blog aquí tienen otro link donde se lee el texto completo.

Los dejo con el dulce:

For the last few years the global economy has been running on two engines, the U.S. on the consumption side and China on the production side, both lifting the entire global economy. The U.S. has been the consumer of first and last resort spending more than its income and running large current account deficits while China (and other emerging market economies) has been the producer of first and last resort, spending less than its income and running ever larger current account surpluses.

For the last few months the first engine of global growth has effectively shut down as the latest batch of macro news from the U.S. are worse than awful: collapsing consumption and consumer confidence, plunging housing, collapsing auto sales, plunging durable goods spending (while supply side indicators such as production, ISM (factory index) and employment are also free falling). The U.S. is entering its worst consumer recession in decades both supply and demand data look worse than in the severe recessions of 1974-75 and 1980-82. And in due time this tsunami of awful macro news, together with ugly downside surprises to earnings will take another toll on equity valuations that are now temporarily lifted by another bear market sucker’s rally.

More worrisome there are now increasing signs that the other main engine of the global economy – China - is also stalling. Let us consider now in detail the evidence that China may be on its way to a hard landing…

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