Con la comida no se jode

La célebre frase de Scioli me viene ideal para ilustrar la idea de este post. La FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), siempre muy atenta a la seguridad alimentaria mundial y el impacto del precio de los alimentos en los países más pobres, ha expresado en su último informe una idea controversial para muchos: la creciente especulación en el mercado de granos no afectó el precio de los alimentos.

Por supuesto no lo dice de ese modo. Veamos sus frases textuales:

Some observers contend that increased participation by speculators in futures markets has increased so markedly in recent years, that it is now excessive and could be a cause of the very recent price gyrations experienced in basic food commodity markets. However it is also probable that their increase reflects expected profit opportunities that originate in the commodity market fundamentals themselves and are signalled to them by hedger activity. Simply put, the increase in speculative activity is due to expected changes in market fundamentals and not vice versa.
...
Some observers do suggest that speculators were responsible in part for recent price rises and not simply to underlying market fundamentals (Robles et al., 2009, Masters, 2008).There is almost no evidence that speculative positions in futures markets directly affect prices, though some have found some evidence over specific intervals for certain commodities. Very preliminary in house econometric analysis also does not indicate any statistical link between speculators positions and spot prices. Other recent studies have found mixed results on directions of causation (EU, 2009). The topic certainly merits further research to avoid a priori judgements in any policy decisions regarding the operation of these markets.

Basta de hablar de fondos y otras macanas por el estilo y volvamos sobre los fundamentals tradicionales.

Fuente: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009-2018

Como nos ven hoy: del Commodity News del CBOT

Argentina Fails To Release March Crop Report; Critics Cry Foul

Argentina’s grain traders, exporters and farmers are left wondering how much soy is likely to come from the Pampas this season after the government failed to produce a key crop production forecast report this month.

The report, which was scheduled for release on March 18, is simply delayed, said an Agriculture Secretariat spokesman. However, local daily Clarin said Thursday that government officials had deliberately blocked release of the report. The government has steadily eliminated key agricultural reports in recent months, in a move critics say is aimed at sealing its control over the combative sector.

The government is locked in a battle with farmers over grain-export taxes. Amid ongoing talks, farmers announced a one-week strike starting last Friday and are manning sporadic roadblocks across the country.

The Agriculture Secretariat spokesman said the delay in releasing the monthly and weekly crop reports was due to a revision of the methodology for producing the report and transition after the director of the department that produces the report, Mario Camarero, was sacked last month. Camarero had headed the department for eight years.

While the delay may very well be due to disorder following the shift, many see it as a larger pattern of controlling data to manipulate markets.

“The lack of information is tremendous, and that limits the ability to make decisions, both for the big companies that are used to relying on it, and the small farmers who want to see if there’s demand for more grain or not,” said Rosario Grain Exchange analyst Lorena D’Angelo.

Panagricola S.A. Vice President Ricardo Baccarin said there is no longer any way to follow day-by-day activity. “It’s really complicated now.”

The agricultural sector has been shooting blind in recent months as the government stopped publishing other key data in a move reminiscent of alleged manipulation of the national statistics agency Indec.

Many analysts have strong doubts regarding the veracity of the government reports on inflation, industrial output and economic growth. The government has denied manipulating data, but many accuse Indec of releasing politically influenced reports that paint an unrealistically rosy portrait of the country’s economic health.

Now, the government has stopped releasing reports on grain and oilseed stocks, export commitments, wheat milling and soy crushing.

The most recent report on grain and oilseed stocks is dated Oct. 1. One has to go back to June to see the last report on export-sale commitments by destination. The latest wheat grind and soybean crush data are from September. Export sales data are published sporadically.

Analyst blame the agricultural trade office, Oncca, for shutting down the data releases, which previously were disseminated by the Agriculture Secretariat.

Last year, Oncca was given the mandate to control all farm exports as domestic grocery prices soared due to an international commodities rally. Oncca calculates domestic demand and rejects export permits when it appears that the surplus hasalready been committed for export.

Si los Incas lo supieran...

Sin dudas alguna, estamos transitando EL momento del maíz. De hecho, por primera vez la curva de maíz corta a la del complejo sojero en cantidad de contratos realizados a futuro en la meca: Chicago (CBOT)
El crecimiento en volumen diario así también lo señala marcando el increible ritmo al que está avanzando.

El salto no vino solo sino que lo hizo acompañado de un incremento en su volatilidad histórica desenganchándose, además, de la serie de soja.

En Argentina aún los negocios en soja más que duplican los de maíz. ¿Se vendrá el cambio de tendencia?

El número del día: 1/3

1/3 es la relación existente entre el volumen operado anualmente en futuros de granos en el Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires respecto de lo que opera a diario la Bolsa de Chicago (CBOT).

Dicho más sencillamente, en el MATBA (Argentina) se opera en granos en un año lo que al CBOT (Estados Unidos) le lleva 1/3 de día.

Es conocida la importancia y relevancia de la existencia de los mercados de futuros, pero aún es más importante que exista liquidez en dichos mercados. Por ello la importancia de uno de los componentes del mercado: la especulación.

Veamos los números de manera detallada para entender la diferencias de magnitudes:

De la relación entre toneladas operadas y producción se obtiene una interesante aproximación de la profundidad de cada mercado. Veamos:
TonOp/Prod

CBOT: TRIGO: 36.72
MAIZ: 20.16
SOJA: 34.90

MATBA: TRIGO: 39.0%
MAIZ: 16.1%
SOJA: 18.4%

Para poner un ejemplo, mientras que en Estados Unidos la producción de soja pasa ¡35 veces! por el recinto de operaciones, en la nuestra sólo pasa el 18%.

Por supuesto que Chicago es la plaza de referencia y todo el mundo se arbrita alli asi que comparemos con datos mundiales:

TonOp/ProdMund

CBOT: TRIGO: 3.39
MAIZ: 8.18
SOJA: 13.35

Aún considerando los datos de producción mundial, en Chicago se opera entre 3 y 13 veces la producción mundial de trigo, maíz y soja.

Quiero destacar que a pesar de los magros números del MATBA, su operatoria viene creciendo de manera marcada desde el 2002, fecha en que casi desaparece. Un mercado de futuros debe ser sinómino de apego a las reglas, seguridad jurídica, confianza y estabilidad, por ello es que a nuestro país, con un "track record" para olvidar, le cuesta profundizar este tipo de operatoria.