jueves, abril 23, 2009

Blanchard y la crisis



Con sus más, con sus menos, cada una dirá, pero es un muy buen texto para organizar un poco las ideas y seguir de cerca la opinión del FMI. Lo publicaron ayer.

Para entusiasmarlos en su lectura nada mejor que sus propias palabras:

The best way of motivating the lecture is to start with the chart in Figure 1. The first bar (which is barely visible) shows the estimated losses on U.S. subprime loans and securities, estimated as of October 2007, at about $250 billion dollars. The second bar shows the expected cumulative loss in world output associated with the crisis, based on current forecasts. This loss is constructed as the sum, over all countries, of the expected
cumulative deviation of output from trend in each country, based on IMF estimates and forecasts of output as of November 2008, for the years 2008 to 2015. Based on these forecasts, the cumulative loss is forecast to run at $4,700 billion dollars, so about 20 times the initial subprime loss. The third bar shows the decrease in the value of stock markets, measured as the sum, over all markets, of the decrease in stock market capitalization from July 2007 to November 2008. This loss is equal to about $26,400 billion, so about 100 times the initial subprime loss! The question is an obvious one: How could such a relatively limited and localized event (the subprime loan crisis in the United States) have effects of such magnitude on the world economy?*

* Ironically, the other shock which dominated the news until the financial crisis led to the opposite question:
How could the very large increase in oil prices from the early 2000s to mid-2008 have such a small apparent
impact on economic activity? After all, similar increases are typically blamed for the very deep recessions of the
1970s and early 1980s. The plausible answer, which I shall not explore in this lecture, but is very much worth
exploring, must be that the economy has become less fragile in some dimensions, more fragile in others.

Etiquetas: ,

6 Comentarios:

At 10:12 p.m., Anonymous Anónimo said...

che está bueno el blog, me gusta el hecho de que incorpores notas en inglés. te agregué al mio

http://www.economiaargentinahoy.blogspot.com/

abrazo.

 
At 10:10 a.m., Blogger Andrés el Viejo said...

No he leído y probablemente no tendré tiempo de leer el trabajo de Blanchard. La pregunta sobre por qué una crisis financiera más o menos limitada, como la de las hipotecas, pudo producir un descalabro de semejante magnitud no es de difícil respuesta.
Si la economía mundial desarrolló en las últimas décadas una pirámide invertida con una pequeña base productiva abajo y una gigantesca masa especulativa arriba, ¿por qué asombrarse de que baste un soplido para hacerla caer?
La caída de las subprime arrastró a la desmesurada cantidad de bonos, títulos, derivativos y demás papeles que no representan riqueza real, pero reclaman su parte de las ganancias. Sólo una limpieza a fondo de esa montaña de basura especulativa podría clausurar la crisis.
Saludos

 
At 8:13 p.m., Anonymous Anónimo said...

Hi,
Play Casino For Fun
Check out the software the casino uses.
[url=http://nicheblogssquad.com/]Play Online Casino[/url]
Some websites are freely accessible, while you'll require putting down a certain deposit in others.
http://nicheblogssquad.com/ - Play Online Casino
Some websites are freely accessible, while you'll require putting down a certain deposit in others.

 
At 2:30 p.m., Anonymous Anónimo said...

used car thomson
used car specifications
hotwire car rental
picture of race car
hotwire car rentl
fleas in car
iphone car dock
cars in hawii

 
At 9:52 a.m., Anonymous Anónimo said...

free car facts vin
winter emergency kit for the car
advantage car hire
car maxford mustangs
lambskin car coat
amman car rental
vigilance for driver in car
three wheel car auto

 
At 6:03 a.m., Anonymous Anónimo said...

Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I
have really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I will be subscribing to your rss feed
and I hope you write again very soon!

My web-site; appliance repair Valrico

 

Publicar un comentario

<< Home

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.