miércoles, abril 29, 2009


Googling the future es el último título de la sección Economic indicators de la Economist. La idea de la nota es la siguiente: "fluctuations in the frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models used to predict."

Y hasta ofrecen un ejemplo:"For example, using data on searches for trucks and SUVs to predict the monthly sales of motor vehicles reduces the average error by up to 18% compared with the predictions from a model that did not incorporate the search data. The volume of searches for Hong Kong carried out in countries like America, Britain, Australia and India also seems to predict eventual tourist arrivals to the territory from these countries rather well."

Que resulta interesante no lo niego y la idea me trajo a la memoria alguna que otra metodología de distintos índices "líderes" que conozco.

Ahora a jugar un rato con google y evoluciones de acciones, ventas de algún bien, imagen de candidatos, etc.

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12 Comentarios:

At 1:14 p. m., Blogger Natalio Ruiz said...


Yo acá había escrito sobre eso. Pasa que Google tiene como economista jefe al que escribió unos de los libros de texto más usados de microeconomía.


Cosas que Pasan - Supuestos y algo más

At 2:44 p. m., Blogger Abuelo Económico said...

Se me había escapado, qué interesante! gracias Natalio por comentarlo. Voy a bajarme el paper que colgaste.

At 4:05 p. m., Blogger Natalio Ruiz said...

Otra cosa:

Google hizo algo parecido con la gripe en México, al no disponer de datos oficiales. Es impresionante.

Unlike Google Flu Trends for U.S., Experimental Flu Trends for Mexico was not built using historical data on flu symptoms. This means the models have not been checked against actual historic flu data from Mexico and thus the estimates you see for Mexico are unverified. The models for Mexico are based on aggregated search queries likely to be associated with influenza-like illness (ILI).LinkEl video es para verlo.


Cosas que Pasan - Supuestos y algo más

At 6:06 p. m., Blogger Abuelo Económico said...

Muy bueno! A pleno con (el) Varian.

At 2:46 p. m., Anonymous mauro said...

abuelo y natalio, he redescubierto esa herramienta, sobre todo el tradicional con sus posts.

Lo que aún no me queda claro, es si "la cantidad de búsqueda" es representativa. Me puse a jugar con el "buy house" y me salieron a penas 58 consultas en US. De todas formas, en el tradicional la cosa se vuelve mas interesante.

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